STAGE A RESEARCH PM NeuroPilot is in concept/research phase. Features described represent design intentions pending validation. Learn more

Learn About Cognitive Bias in Project Management

Books, research, and insights from the Leadership Decision Crisis Series and PM NeuroPilot research.

Books by Terence W. Beckwith

A three-part series examining why projects fail, why failure persists, and how AI might help.

The $2 Trillion Mistake
Book One

The $2 Trillion Mistake

Why Smart Teams Keep Making the Same Mistakes

The first volume explores the cognitive biases that cause project failure. Drawing on PMI research and behavioral economics, this book reveals why intelligent, well-intentioned teams consistently fall into predictable traps—and why traditional solutions don't work.

  • The 8 cognitive biases that sabotage projects
  • Why "the right people" strategy fails
  • How incentive systems punish success behaviors
  • The $2 trillion annual cost of project failure
Kindle: $7.99 Paperback: $18.99 Hardcover: $29.99
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The Persistence of Organizational Failure
Book Two

The Persistence of Organizational Failure

How Decisions, Incentives and Governance Make Failure Self-Sustaining

The second volume asks the harder question: Why do these patterns persist even after we understand them? This book examines the structural forces—governance, incentives, and decision environments—that make organizational failure self-sustaining.

  • Why knowing about bias doesn't prevent it
  • How governance structures reward failure signals
  • The role of incentives in suppressing early warnings
  • Decision environment design principles
Kindle: $7.99 Paperback: $18.99 Hardcover: $29.99
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The AI + PM Orchestration
Coming March 2026

The AI + PM Orchestration

An AI Bridge from Decision Design to Intelligent Decision Support

The final volume bridges decision design and decision intelligence. This book explores how artificial intelligence can be used to instrument decision environments—making bias visible, risk accumulation measurable, and critical signals harder to suppress.

  • From decision design to intelligent decision support
  • The PM NeuroPilot research framework
  • 8-bias detection methodology
  • Validation approach and research commitment
Kindle: $7.99 Paperback: $18.99 Hardcover: $29.99
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The Science Behind PM NeuroPilot

Our approach is grounded in decades of peer-reviewed research in cognitive psychology, behavioral economics, and project management.

Cognitive Bias Research

PM NeuroPilot's 8-bias framework builds on foundational work by Kahneman, Tversky, and others who established how systematic cognitive errors affect human decision-making.

Key Sources

  • Kahneman, D. (2011). Thinking, Fast and Slow
  • Tversky, A. & Kahneman, D. (1974). Judgment under Uncertainty
  • Janis, I. (1972). Victims of Groupthink

Project Management Research

We draw heavily on PMI's Pulse of the Profession reports and Bent Flyvbjerg's work on megaproject failure to understand how cognitive biases manifest in project environments.

Key Sources

  • PMI Pulse of the Profession (2020-2024)
  • Flyvbjerg, B. (2021). Top Ten Behavioral Biases in Project Management
  • Standish Group CHAOS Reports

Decision Science

The intervention design for PM NeuroPilot draws on behavioral economics research about how to effectively change decision behavior through environmental design.

Key Sources

  • Thaler, R. & Sunstein, C. (2008). Nudge
  • Ariely, D. (2008). Predictably Irrational
  • Samuelson, W. & Zeckhauser, R. (1988). Status Quo Bias

The 8-Bias Detection Framework

PM NeuroPilot is designed to detect and help mitigate eight cognitive biases that research shows have the greatest impact on project outcomes.

1

Planning Fallacy

Systematic underestimation of time, costs, and risks while overestimating benefits.

2

Optimism Bias

Believing your project is less likely to experience negative events than others.

3

Sunk Cost Fallacy

Continuing investment based on past costs rather than future value.

4

Confirmation Bias

Seeking information that confirms existing beliefs while ignoring contradicting data.

5

Anchoring Bias

Over-reliance on initial information when making subsequent decisions.

6

Availability Bias

Overweighting recent or memorable events in risk assessment.

7

Groupthink

Prioritizing team harmony over critical evaluation of decisions.

8

Status Quo Bias

Preference for the current state even when change is beneficial.

Our Validation Approach

We are committed to rigorous validation and transparent reporting of results.

Grant-Funded Research

We are pursuing PMI Research Grants and NSF SBIR funding to ensure independent validation of our approach.

Pilot Program Validation

Our Q2 2026 pilot program will test PM NeuroPilot with 2-5 organizations across 30-50 project teams.

Published Results

We commit to publishing complete results regardless of outcome. If our hypotheses are wrong, we will say so publicly.